Are African LDCs benefiting from China’s preferential market access?

Purpose This study aims to assess the extent to which African least developed countries (LDCs) are benefiting from China’s preferential market access under the zero-tariff, zero-quota arrangement. It examines the structure of LDC exports to China, trade intensity, untapped export potential and market concentration in selected countries. Design/methodology/approach The analysis relies on secondary data from UN COMTRADE and the International Trade Centre’s Trade Map at the six-digit Harmonized System level. Using the Trade Intensity Index (TII), existing and potential trade flows were assessed for Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda, while the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) measured supplier concentration and competitiveness across key product categories. Findings Results show that African LDC exports to China grew by 217.8% between 2015 and 2024, yet trade remains highly concentrated among a few resource-rich economies, notably the Democratic Republic of Congo. Most LDCs exhibit TII values below one, reflecting under-utilization of preferential access. Coffee, sesame seeds, fish maws and precious-metal ores represent promising export opportunities where Chinese import demand is expanding and supplier concentration is moderate (HHI = 0.15–0.25). Generally, benefits from China’s preferential market access are evident but uneven, constrained by low productive capacity, limited diversification and infrastructure gaps. Practical implications African LDCs ought to strengthen productive capacity and trade intelligence to exploit China’s import demand. Regional cooperation through particularly in infrastructure and logistics, would further lower trade costs and improve market access. Originality/value This paper provides a product-level, evidence-based assessment of China’s preferential market access for African LDCs, integrating TII and HHI analysis to identify specific export niches with high potential for expansion.