Abstract Cardiocranius paradoxus is a common species widely distributed in eastern Palearctic deserts. Details of its distribution are relatively poorly known because the species is hardly detectable. This species peculiarity makes predictive distribution modeling important for understanding distribution patterns and its conservation significance. We present data on 35 new occurrence records of from north-western China and Mongolia collected in 2012–2025. We tested whether species distribution modeling based on historical distribution data could predict the new records. We found that the new records can be predicted from the historical distribution data and that the best performance was achieved by a combination of MAXENT models constructed for separate segments of the species’ geographic range. Most new occurrence records were located close to historical records, but some allowed to expand the species’ range by converting suitable areas that are inaccessible to the species to the really occupied areas. The estimated total area of the species’ geographic range obtained by combining models for separate segments of the range was 1,041,048 sq. km.
Shenbrot et al. (Wed,) studied this question.