When Pork Changes Hands: Coalition Presidentialism, Legislative Capture, and the Price of Legislative Support in Brazil

Replication code, analysis-ready panel data, and manuscript for a paper that estimates the causal effect of parliamentary amendments on legislative alignment in Brazil's Chamber of Deputies, covering the 55th and 56th Legislatures (2015-2022). The identification strategy is an instrumental-variables Double Machine Learning (PLIV-DML) framework, with the ministry-execution backlog as the instrument. The canonical pork-for-votes coefficient reverses sign between two consecutive legislatures once the outcome tracks the Executive, and re-emerges positive under the Chamber-president-alignment outcome after Arthur Lira assumes the Chamber presidency in February 2021. We interpret the pattern as legislative capture of the pork channel.