Simulation-based assessment of a large-scale car-restricted area in Berlin

Large-scale car-restricted areas are increasingly discussed as instruments to reduce urban traffic and emissions. However, the resulting parking scarcity is rarely represented explicitly in large-scale transport simulations. This study assesses the proposed car-restricted area within Berlin's Inner Ring using the MATSim Open Berlin scenario and introduces a simplified parking pricing mechanism to represent competition for the remaining parking supply. The policy reduces accessible parking supply within the restricted area by approximately 95%, leading to substantial parking pressure on the remaining streets. Accounting for parking scarcity increases the estimated behavioural response compared to a policy scenario without parking pressure. The Berlin-wide car modal share decreases by 7.8 percentage points, vehicle kilometers travelled by 16.2%, and CO2 emissions by 19.8%. Effects are strongest for residents living within the restricted area, who shift primarily to public transport and cycling.