EnergyIntellect Pro v3.5.1 — Technical Documentation: A Supply-Side Physical Shock Price Impact Model for the Global Oil Market (Allocation Law Framework)

EnergyIntellect Pro is a supply-side physical shock price impact model for the global oil market. Given a discrete physical disruption — a field outage, pipeline closure, strait blockade, sanctions regime, or infrastructure damage — the model computes the medium-term (3–18 month) equilibrium effect on the Brent crude benchmark price. The model architecture is a six-layer sequential framework (Allocation Law Framework): (L1) portfolio supply loss across a 27-field global database; (L2) global market compensation with rest-of-world supply elasticity; (L3) non-linear demand response with exponential saturation; (L4) logistics constraints with a flexibility-adjusted multiplier; (L5) crude quality mismatch premium; and (L6) strategic and commercial inventory buffer dynamics, including pipeline bypass capacity (Saudi East-West and UAE Fujairah, ~6.5 Mbpd) and a buffer depletion mechanism that produces a discontinuous price transition when draw capacity is exhausted. A refined products layer decouples product prices from crude via crack spread dynamics. Uncertainty is quantified with seeded, fully reproducible Monte Carlo simulation (P10/P50/P90; mulberry32 PRNG with a configuration-derived seed), so identical inputs always produce identical outputs and every analysis carries a reproducible seed and analysis ID. The documentation includes the complete mathematical specification, parameter calibration against historical episodes (including the 2019 Abqaiq attack and the 2026 Strait of Hormuz closure, where the model's full-shock price of $124.2 compares to an observed peak of $126.41, a deviation of −1.8%), and an explicit limitations section (L1–L8). The model deliberately does not cover demand shocks, short-term price spikes, speculative positioning, or event probability estimation; these scope boundaries are documented as part of the methodology.