Global Risks and Vulnerabilities of Eucalyptus Plantations Under 1.5 to 4 °C Global Warming Levels

The vulnerability of forest plantations to climate change threatens global forest production, particularly as current climate commitments are unlikely to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Developing risk indicators is essential to quantify vulnerabilities and anticipate potential losses in Eucalyptus plantations. This study developed and applied twenty-one Eucalyptus-specific bioclimatic, pests and diseases risk indicators across four global warming levels (GWLs, 1.5 °C to 4 °C). The analysis was based on high-resolution simulations (1995–2014) and projections (2015–2100) from 23 General Circulation Models from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6), under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Daily near-surface air temperature, accumulated precipitation, relative humidity, and global solar radiation were used to calculate all indicators for a control period (1995–2014) and for time slices corresponding to each warming level. Indicators were subsequently classified into five risk levels ranging from very low to very high. Climate-driven changes in temperature, precipitation, humidity, and radiation produced broadly similar risk types across regions, differing in magnitude and spatial extent. Globally, the highest risks were associated with productivity loss (77.7–80.2% of the global area), water requirement (~ 78%), water stress (~ 8.5%), gall wasp infestation (~ 3%), and eucalyptus canker (~ 1.3%). Although phytosanitary risks affected smaller areas, they were concentrated in major eucalyptus-producing regions across South America, Africa, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. These findings underscore the need to integrate climate risk into forest planning and management and to strengthen genetic improvement and biological control strategies to enhance resilience under progressive warming. Graphical Abstract The graphical abstract presents the global risks and vulnerabilities of eucalyptus plantations under four global warming levels (GWLs). The study first identified the years at which each GWL was reached using CMIP6 General Circulation Models (GCMs). These years were subsequently linked to their high-resolution counterparts from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset. A total of 21 indicators were developed and analyzed to quantify climate and phytosanitary risks to eucalyptus plantations at the global scale across all GWLs (1.5 °C to 4 °C). In addition, key adaptation measures were identified to mitigate these risks based on high-resolution climate projections. The results indicate that the greatest risks were associated with productivity loss (77.7–80.2% of the area), water requirement (~ 78%), water stress (~ 8.5%), gall wasp infestation (~ 3%), and eucalyptus canker (~ 1.3%). Although phytosanitary risks affected smaller areas, they were concentrated in major eucalyptus-producing regions across South America, Africa, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. These findings underscore the need to integrate climate risk into forest planning and management and to strengthen genetic improvement and biological control strategies to enhance resilience under progressive warming.