Rakhine on the Edge: A Strategic Dilemma for Bangladesh

The escalating conflict in Myanmar's Rakhine State, driven by the rise of the Arakan Army and mounting humanitarian and geopolitical pressures, has left Bangladesh vulnerable. Hosting over 1.2 million Rohingya refugees, Bangladesh must manage instability while protecting its national interests. This paper examines the strategic implications of the crisis, the challenges posed by a proposed humanitarian corridor, and Bangladesh's policy options amid competing interests from China, India, and the United States. Drawing on existing literature, published infromation from 2023 to 2025, and three analytical approaches (offensive realism, balance‐of‐threat theory, and humanitarian diplomacy), the author argues that the proposed corridor presents both humanitarian potential and strategic risk. In addition, the paper introduces and operationalizes the concept of “strategic humanitarianism” where aid becomes a tool for negotiation, influence, and soft power. While internal divisions may hinder policy coherence, regional powers could also exploit the crisis, and Myanmar's fragmented authority may further restrict bilateral engagement and complicate diplomatic efforts. This paper reframes the Rakhine issue through a geopolitical lens, offering a multidimensional perspective on Bangladesh's evolving strategic calculus.