Opioid consumption in the first 30 days after surgery was independently associated with new persistent opioid use

INTRODUCTION: Previous studies suggest that new persistent opioid use (NPOU) after surgery was associated with larger perioperative opioid prescriptions, but the association between NPOU and postoperative opioid consumption is unknown. METHODS: This retrospective study included opioid naïve individuals aged 18-64 who underwent surgical procedures across 70 Michigan hospitals between July 1, 2018 and November 15, 2021 and were prescribed opioids at discharge. We used clinical and patient-reported opioid consumption data from the Michigan Surgical Quality Collaborative, a statewide surgical registry, linked with the state Prescription Drug Monitoring Program. Multivariable logistic regression modeling was used to assess the association between patient-reported opioid consumption during the 30 days after discharge and NPOU, defined as having an opioid fill during both 31-120 days and 121-210 days after discharge. RESULTS: Among 36,271 patients included, 482 (1.3%) developed NPOU. These patients consumed more opioid pills in the first 30 days postoperatively than those without NPOU (mean (SD): 7.3 (8.4) 5 mg oxycodone equivalent pills vs 4.1 (5.5), SMD=-0.41). In adjusted analyses, each additional opioid pill consumed in the 30-day postoperative period was associated with a 0.05 percentage-point increase in the predicted probability of NPOU (95% CI 0.04 to 0.07 percentage points). Thus, holding all other variables constant, a 10-pill increase in consumption would be associated with a 0.5 percentage-point increase in the probability of NPOU, or a 38.4% increase relative to the baseline rate of 1.3%. CONCLUSION: Demonstrating that opioid consumption in the first 30 days after surgery was independently associated with NPOU underscores the importance of perioperative opioid prescribing on long-term outcomes.