Between chalk and chains: the political economy of teachers and learning-focused reforms in low- and middle-income countries

This study examines the political economy of learning-focused education reforms in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), focusing on how teacher welfare, institutional stability, and professional agency shape reform implementation and outcomes. Moving beyond technocratic and outcome-driven reform models, it situates education change within broader power relations, fiscal austerity, and governance constraints. Employing a sequential mixed-methods design, the research integrates cross-national panel data (2010–2022) from 42 LMICs with comparative case studies of Ghana, Kenya, India, and Peru. Quantitative results show that a one-standard-deviation increase in the Teacher Welfare Index (TWI) is associated with a 0.21 standard deviation improvement in the Harmonized Learning Score (HLS), while higher Policy Volatility Index (PVI) scores significantly weaken this association. The qualitative analysis, based on 7,241 stakeholder interviews and extensive documentary evidence analyzed through process tracing and thematic coding, reveals that accountability-centered reforms often yield symbolic compliance rather than authentic ownership when teacher welfare and legitimacy are neglected. Teachers emerge as strategic political actors who negotiate, adapt, or resist reforms depending on perceived equity and sustainability. The study proposes a novel multi-level reform framework linking welfare, stability, and agency to learning outcomes, offering both theoretical and policy insights for sustainable education reform.