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July 18, 2026Clinical and Molecular HepatologyOpen Access

OAC initiation is linked to ~38% lower hepatic decompensation risk in AF with compensated cirrhosis.

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Why the study?

Oral anticoagulants may reduce the risk of hepatic decompensation in patients with compensated cirrhosis, but well-powered randomized trials are lacking.

Do oral anticoagulants reduce the risk of hepatic decompensation and major bleeding in patients with compensated cirrhosis and atrial fibrillation?

Population

1,160 patients with compensated cirrhosis and newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in Sweden

Comparison

Initiators vs non-initiators of oral anticoagulants

Design

Observational target trial emulation study

Follow-up

5 years

Key result

Initiation of oral anticoagulants in patients with compensated cirrhosis and atrial fibrillation reduced the 5-year risk of hepatic decompensation by 38% (RR 0.62) compared to non-initiators.

Authors

AWAxel WesterEGEmilie Toresson GripRRRupesh Rajani

Discussion

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Overview

Should not yet change practice in compensated cirrhosis with AF; leaves open need for randomized confirmation of decompensation benefit.

Key Points

  • This study estimates the effect of oral anticoagulants on hepatic decompensation and major bleeding risks in patients with compensated cirrhosis and atrial fibrillation.
  • Employed observational data from Swedish healthcare registers from 2011-2022.
  • Used inverse-probability weighted marginal structural models to compare risks of hepatic decompensation and major bleeding in initiators vs non-initiators of oral anticoagulants.
  • Included 1,160 patients with compensated cirrhosis and atrial fibrillation.
  • 5-year risk of hepatic decompensation was 10.4% in initiators vs 16.6% in non-initiators (RR=0.62, 95% CI=0.33-0.92).
  • Risk of major bleeding was similar between groups: 19.0% in initiators vs 19.8% in non-initiators (RR=0.96, 95% CI=0.64-1.28).
  • Number needed to treat for preventing one case of hepatic decompensation was 17 (95% CI=9-112).

Study Design

Type

Observational (n=1,160)

Structured PICO

Do oral anticoagulants reduce the risk of hepatic decompensation and major bleeding in patients with compensated cirrhosis and atrial fibrillation?

P
Population
1,160 adults with compensated cirrhosis and newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation, followed for up to 5 years.
E
Exposure
Initiation of oral anticoagulants
C
Comparator
Non-initiation of oral anticoagulants
O
Outcome
5-year risk of hepatic decompensation and non-portal hypertension-related major bleedinghard clinical

Main Result

Relative Risk: 0.62 (95% CI 0.33–0.92)

Absolute Event Rate: 10.4% vs 16.6%

Absolute Risk Reduction: 6.2%

Number Needed to Treat: 17

In patients with compensated cirrhosis and atrial fibrillation, initiating oral anticoagulants is associated with a reduced risk of hepatic decompensation without increasing the risk of major bleeding.

Limitations

  • Observational design with potential for residual confounding
  • Potential misclassification of cirrhosis or outcomes in register data

Cite This Study

Wester et al. (2026) conducted an observational in Compensated cirrhosis and atrial fibrillation (n=1,160). Oral anticoagulants vs. Non-initiators was evaluated on First hepatic decompensation during follow-up (RR 0.62, 95% CI 0.33-0.92). Initiation of oral anticoagulants in patients with compensated cirrhosis and atrial fibrillation reduced the 5-year risk of hepatic decompensation by 38% (RR 0.62) compared to non-initiators.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a5b172618557b26c2039851https://doi.org/10.3350/cmh.2026.0286
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