Mitigating Systemic Risks in the Energy Transition: A Comparative Study of Weather and Solar Irradiance Forecast Providers Based on Real-World Performance

The transition towards decarbonised energy systems, often characterised by high photovoltaic penetration, imposes crucial challenges for operational security, flexibility and grid resilience. In this landscape, meteorological-data reliability has emerged as a strategic pillar to mitigate systemic risks arising from forecasting uncertainty, including grid imbalances, electricity-market volatility, and structural asset safety during extreme weather. This study provides a comparative analysis of four forecasting providers, evaluating their accuracy across atmospheric and solar irradiance parameters through heterogeneous datasets spanning diverse climatic zones and seasons. The analysis is performed by employing a dual-source validation framework that benchmarks every forecast against independent, real-world references rather than the providers’ own model-derived observations: first, the atmospheric variables are compared with real surface-station measurements; second, plane-of-array irradiance is benchmarked directly against on-site sensors at operational photovoltaic plants. This dual-source approach isolates systematic model biases relative to real-world environmental conditions, yielding a provider-independent estimate of accuracy against the true atmospheric and irradiance state. This work therefore proposes not merely a comparative analysis but a validation methodology that addresses a specific limitation of existing forecast-comparison approaches, offering actionable insights to minimise financial and operational risks while fostering a secure, resilient, and sustainable energy infrastructure.