The growing gap between churches and Christian democratic parties: evidence from Germany

For decades, denominations of the Christian Church have formed powerful alliances with political parties representing their interests, the most notable one being the alliance between the Roman Catholic Church and Catholic political parties that later evolved into Christian Democratic parties seeking to represent all Christians. This alliance is now fracturing. A major fault line has emerged over migration policy, where Churches increasingly call for permissive and liberal asylum policies while Christian Democratic parties adopt restrictive positions in response to electoral pressure from radical right parties. We examine the degree to which Church and Christian Democratic positions have deviated over time and what impact these patterns have on voting behavior. We focus on Germany, where both the religious-secular cleavage and a historically dominant Christian Democratic party make this conflict particularly salient. Our analysis reveals that the ideological divide separating the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), from both the Roman Catholic and Protestant Churches is growing, particularly in migration policy. Using survey data, we show that Catholics and in particular Protestants exhibit a declining probability of supporting CDU/CSU over time. Our findings suggest that the strategic repositioning of the CDU/CSU on migration could further erode its traditional religious base, with profound implications for the future of religious politics in Germany and Europe.