Transportation Infrastructure, Commercial Circulation Efficiency and Upgrading Residents’ Consumption Structures: An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data from 288 Cities in China

As a mechanism for ensuring the normal and safe operation of the transportation system, transportation infrastructure plays an important role in improving residents’ consumption environment. This study is grounded in the panel data of 288 prefecture-level cities in China spanning the period from 2015 to 2023. Leveraging Stata 18.0 software, ordinary least squares (OLS) regression is employed to perform baseline estimations. Subsequently, a mediation effect model is utilized to empirically test the transmission mechanism underlying the efficiency of commercial and trade circulation. To probe into the characteristics of spatial spillover, the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) is applied for further analysis. Finally, subgroup regression analysis is conducted to examine the heterogeneous effects across different groups. Through this systematic analytical framework, this study aims to explore the intricate relationships between transportation infrastructure, the efficiency of commercial and trade circulation, and the upgrading of residents’ consumption structure. The results show the following: (1) There is a significant positive correlation between transportation infrastructure improvement and the upgrading of residents’ consumption structure. This positive association remains robust after a series of robustness checks, and spatial effect tests further reveal a positive spatial spillover effect between the two. (2) The results of the mechanism test show that the efficiency of commercial and trade circulation plays a mediating role between transportation infrastructure and the upgrading of residents’ consumption structure. (3) The correlation between transportation infrastructure and the upgrading of residents’ consumption structure varies significantly depending on the development level of the city where the residents live, the degree of spatial connection, the presence of national logistics hubs, and whether it is currently located along a strategic transportation route. This study provides a new perspective for the relevant field: the positive correlation between transportation infrastructure and the upgrading of residents’ consumption structure should not merely be regarded as a tool for stimulating domestic demand, but rather should be seen as an important institutional environment and governance arrangement that promotes the transformation of residents’ consumption patterns towards higher quality and lower carbon emissions, and thereby supports regional sustainable development.