Bridges to Prosperity: How Transport Accessibility Shapes Rural Incomes and Consumption in China

Transportation infrastructure plays a pivotal role in shaping rural development, household welfare, and regional economic convergence. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset spanning 2013–2022, this study constructs a dynamic county-level accessibility improvement index that accounts for road hierarchy, internal connectivity, and geographic constraints. Integrating macro panel data from 1,908 Chinese counties with complementary household-level evidence from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), we examine how transportation improvements are associated with rural income, urban–rural disparities, and household consumption. Using fixed-effects, spatial econometric, and mechanism-oriented models, we find evidence consistent with the view that improved accessibility is associated with higher rural per capita income, a narrower urban–rural income gap, and higher household total and consumption expenditures. Heterogeneity analyses suggest that these associations are more pronounced in impoverished and mountainous counties, and that road hierarchy matters for the distributional implications of transport improvements. Mechanism tests provide suggestive evidence that non-farm employment, population mobility, and industrial restructuring are relevant pathways. Additional spatial analysis indicates possible externalities across neighbouring regions, highlighting the need for coordinated regional planning. These findings provide evidence that transportation improvements are associated with rural welfare gains and inclusive development, offering policy insights for rural revitalisation and equitable regional planning.