Methodology for estimating and mitigating intermittency in renewable energy sources

Renewable energy, particularly green energy, is becoming increasingly essential in meeting global energy demands, primarily due to its emphasis on environmental sustainability. In the field of renewable energy, the term 'intermittency' refers to the variability of electricity generation, which is neither constant nor predictable; instead, it fluctuates based on factors such as solar irradiance, wind velocity, and atmospheric conditions. Consequently, the design of renewable power generation systems must accurately characterise the chosen energy source’s intermittent characteristics. While existing research primarily focuses on the factors contributing to intermittency, relatively few studies have examined the estimation of renewable energy intermittency, and these studies have been based on simulation-based models using power output data from existing energy infrastructures. Notably, there is a significant gap in the field regarding a comprehensive and universally applicable methodology for assessing renewable intermittency, primarily through the statistical analysis of empirical data. Therefore, the primary objective of this study is to develop a statistical model based on empirical data that accurately quantifies the intermittency losses associated with renewable energy sources using a novel Energy Utilisation Capacity methodology, thereby enabling the numerical expression of intermittency. Additionally, this study formulates a methodology utilising statistical tools, including empirical probability density functions and monthly difference ratios, to quantify the intermittency of solar and wind energy sources. The estimation model utilised an extensive dataset of time-series meteorological data, including solar irradiance and wind speed, collected over one year to aggregate the actual energy availability for a specified location. These empirical values were then compared with that location’s maximum potential solar and wind energy to determine the degree of intermittency. Furthermore, this study proposes a mitigation strategy designed to address the intermittency challenges faced by renewable energy sources through dual-storage systems that integrate battery and hydrogen technologies, alongside multiple source aggregation and provision of baseload power. The findings are validated for both solar and wind energy sources.