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Position paper explores banking secrecy mechanisms from 1713 to 2026, showing key factors influencing outcomes.
Swiss banking secrecy is conventionally framed as (a) cultural tradition, (b) rational greed, and/or (c) game-theoretic equilibrium among states and banks. This position paper, based on timestamped work from 03/06/2026 05:52 AM IST, rejects all three. Using Heustoc - heuristic + stochastic analysis - we demonstrate that from 1713 to 2026, the system persisted because key actors faced H < 1: the Cost of Delay exceeded the Safety of waiting. We trace five phase shifts: (1) 1685-1713 Huguenot flight forcing Geneva protections, (2) 1934 Article 47 criminalizing disclosure under Nazi pressure, (3) 2008 UBS collapse when US removed Safety, (4) 2017 CRS flipping H > 1 for old secrecy, and (5) 2017-2026 migration to Dubai, Singapore, South Dakota trusts, and crypto custody. Standard Collective frameworks cannot explain the 2009 mass surrender of 33,000 US clients in 90 days nor the 18% AUM rise post-CRS. Heustoc does: when Safety → 0, D(t) goes vertical regardless of prior equilibrium. Data from DOJ Deferred Prosecution Agreements, BIS Locational Banking Statistics 1977-2024, ICIJ Swiss Leaks and Suisse Secrets, and OECD AEOI peer reviews confirm the model. This paper establishes prior art from 3rd June/2026 and delineates five research boundaries under preparation: (a) Dubai, (b) Singapore, (c) US trusts, (d) crypto, and (e) scale consolidation - to prevent encroachment on subsequent Digital Humanities work.
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Rajesh Agrawal (2026) studied this question.
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