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This research aims to model and project coastal landuse and land cover dynamics along Kerala's coastal stretch over decades.

July 19, 2026Scientific ReportsOpen Access

Comprehensive modelling of coastal landuse and land cover (LULC) dynamics and future changes using random forest, GEE, and MLP–Markov chain integration: a geo-computational approach

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Randomized trial projects future land cover dynamics in coastal Kerala, suggesting significant urban growth changes.

This research aims to model and project coastal landuse and land cover dynamics along Kerala's coastal stretch over decades.
Utilized Google Earth Engine for time-series analysis of Landsat images from 2004, 2015, and 2024.
Employed machine learning techniques including Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and a Multi-Layer Perceptron–Markov Chain for projections.
Measured spectral indices to enhance classification accuracy and LULC trend analysis.
Built-up areas increased from 109.93 km² (6.47%) in 2004 to 373.49 km² (21.98%) in 2024.
Projected built-up area growth to 747.52 km² (43.99%) by 2054, indicating significant urban expansion.
Achieved validation with a Kappa value of 0.71 for the predicted LULC map against actual data from 2024.

Sahala et al. (2026) studied this question.

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