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Novice drivers experience disproportionately high crash involvement during the transition from supervised to independent driving. Although previous studies have separately linked young driver crashes to limited driving experience and crash severity to roadway and environmental conditions, less attention has been given to how age and environmental complexity jointly influence crash severity outcomes within comparable driving contexts. This study examined the interaction between driver age, environmental conditions, and crash severity using crash data from the Ohio Department of Public Safety (2020–2024). Drivers aged 16–34 years were grouped into three cohorts (16–17, 18–24, and 25–34 years), and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to identify crashes occurring within comparable environmental settings. Bayesian Networks (BNs) modeling was then applied to evaluate probabilistic relationships among driver age, environmental conditions, roadway characteristics, behavioral factors, and crash severity outcomes categorized as Property Damage Only (PDO), Minor Injury, and Severe/Fatal Injury. The results show that crash severity was influenced more strongly by environmental conditions, collision dynamics, and roadway complexity than by age alone. Severe/fatal crash risks increased under adverse weather, low-visibility conditions, alcohol involvement, and head-on collisions. However, age-related differences varied systematically across driving contexts rather than appearing uniformly across all crash conditions. Younger drivers generally exhibited higher probabilities of PDO outcomes and lower probabilities of injury outcomes relative to drivers aged 25–34 under lower-demand conditions. In contrast, environments requiring greater driver interaction, judgment, and operational control produced clearer increases in severe/fatal outcomes among younger drivers. Drivers aged 16–17 showed elevated relative risks for severe/fatal crashes at signalized intersections (+20.64%), on divided roadways (+10.56%), and within interchange areas (+6.65%) relative to drivers aged 25–34. Similarly, drivers aged 18–24 exhibited increased severe/fatal relative risks in sideswipe collisions (+10.85%) and under severe weather conditions (+6.22%). Conversely, younger drivers showed lower relative severe/fatal risks under dark unlighted conditions and snow/ice conditions, suggesting comparatively lower exposure to some higher-risk driving environments. These patterns indicate that age-related differences in crash severity become more pronounced in complex driving environments that require continuous interaction with traffic, rapid decision-making, and higher levels of vehicle control. Overall, the findings indicate that the post-licensure safety gap is shaped not only by driving experience, but also by how drivers interact with increasingly complex driving environments. The results suggest that novice driver safety may be improved through training and supervised driving approaches that provide more structured exposure to higher-demand driving conditions before full independent driving. These findings provide practical insight for the development of driver education strategies and graduated licensing approaches aimed at improving young driver safety during the transition to independent driving.
Bikuba et al. (Fri,) studied this question.