A coronary heart disease prediction model: the Korean Heart Study
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Key result
The Korean coronary heart disease risk model demonstrated high discrimination (AUC 0.764 for men, 0.815 for women), whereas the Framingham risk score overestimated CHD events by 3 to 6 times.
Why the study?
Does a population-specific Korean CHD risk model improve prediction of CHD events compared to the Framingham risk score in a Korean cohort?
Population
268,315 Koreans between the ages of 30 and 74 years without CHD at baseline
Comparison
Korean CHD risk model vs Framingham CHD risk score
Design
Cohort
Follow-up
11.6-year median
Authors
Discussion
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Member takes
Implication
Korean CHD model may refine risk estimates where Framingham overestimates; leaves open need for external validation before adoption.
Study Design
Type
Cohort (n=268,315)
Multicenter
Yes
Structured PICO
Does a population-specific Korean CHD risk model improve prediction of CHD events compared to the Framingham risk score in a Korean cohort?
P
Population
268,315 Korean adults aged 30 to 74 years without coronary heart disease at baseline, followed for a median of 11.6 years to develop and validate a cardiovascular risk prediction model.
E
Exposure
Korean CHD risk model (incorporating HDL-cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, and triglycerides)
C
Comparator
Framingham CHD risk score
O
Outcome
Non-fatal or fatal CHD events between 1997 and 2011hard clinical
Main Result
Effect estimate: AUC 0.764 (men) and 0.815 (women) (95% CI 0.752-0.774 (men); 0.795-0.835 (women))
Limitations
- Possible measurement errors from one-time measurements of blood pressure and medical examinations
- Non-random sample used
- Self-reported smoking status and alcohol consumption may be under-reported
- Validation study on mortality data has not been conducted
Cite This Study
Jee et al. (2014) conducted a cohort in Coronary heart disease (CHD) risk prediction (n=268,315). Korean CHD risk model vs. Framingham CHD Risk Score was evaluated on Discrimination for non-fatal or fatal CHD events (Area under the ROC curve) (AUC 0.764 (men) and 0.815 (women), 95% CI 0.752-0.774 (men); 0.795-0.835 (women)). The Korean coronary heart disease risk model demonstrated high discrimination (AUC 0.764 for men, 0.815 for women), whereas the Framingham risk score overestimated CHD events by 3 to 6 times.
Topics
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