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In arid endorheic basins, conflicts among water scarcity, economic expansion, and fragile ecosystems threaten regional sustainability. This study evaluates the coordination dynamics and vulnerability of the Water–Economy–Ecology (WEE) system in the Tarim River mainstream basin from 2006 to 2020. Using remote-sensing and statistical data, we developed a risk-oriented framework combining the Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model, Obstacle Factor (OF) analysis, and partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) to assess coordination status, identify limiting factors, and reveal causal pathways. Results show that the basin-wide CCD increased from 0.55 to 0.70, reaching intermediate coordination, whereas most counties remained in “Mild disorder” or “Not coordinated” stages, indicating that aggregate improvement masked spatial heterogeneity. Rapid economic growth and cropland expansion compressed ecological space, and the ecological subsystem lagged behind the economic and water subsystems. OF and PLS-SEM consistently identify ecological water conveyance as the key bottleneck constraining WEE synergy: upstream areas benefited from natural water endowments, whereas midstream and downstream areas depended on artificial ecological water allocation. These findings suggest that ecological water security is a rigid baseline . Adaptive governance should prioritize ecological water rights, enforce basin-wide flow constraints, improve water-use efficiency, and adopt spatially differentiated allocation and compensation strategies.
Lianchao et al. (Sun,) studied this question.