Land-Use Land-Cover Dynamics and Future Projections Using GEE, ML, and QGIS-MOLUSCE: A Case Study in Manisa

Urban expansion reshapes spatial patterns over time, leading to complex challenges such as environmental degradation, resource scarcity, and socio-economic inequality. It is critical to anticipate these transformations in order to devise proactive urban policies and implement sustainable planning practices that minimize negative impacts on ecosystems and human livelihoods. This study investigates LULC changes in the rapidly urbanizing Manisa metropolitan area of Turkey using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and advanced machine learning algorithms. High-accuracy LULC maps were generated for 2018, 2021, and 2024 using Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, k-Nearest Neighbors, and Classification and Regression Trees algorithms. Among these, the Random Forest algorithm demonstrated superior accuracy and consistency in distinguishing complex land-cover classes. Future LULC scenarios for 2027 and 2030 were simulated using the Cellular Automata–Artificial Neural Network model and the QGIS MOLUSCE plugin. The results indicate significant urban growth, with built-up areas projected to increase by 23.67% between 2024 and 2030, accompanied by declines in natural resources such as bare land and water bodies. This study highlights the implications of urban expansion regarding ecological balance and demonstrates the importance of integrating machine learning and simulation models to forecast land use changes, enabling sustainable urban planning and resource management. Overall, effective policies must be developed to manage the negative environmental impacts of urbanization and conduct land use planning in a balanced manner.