The varying effect of placement instability on high school graduation for youth with disability diagnoses: a Bayesian analysis with foster care data

Nearly 400,000 children are in U.S. foster care, and about one-third have a disability, compared to 10% in the general population. Using data from two national databases (NYTD and AFCARS) (N = 5,914), this study applied Bayesian logistic regression with both non-informative and informative priors to examine whether disability moderates the relation between placement instability and high school graduation. Youth without disabilities were more likely to graduate when placement changes were infrequent, whereas those with emotional disabilities showed greater resilience to frequent moves. Findings underscore the moderating role of disability and the importance of promoting placement stability for educational success.