A damage mechanics assessment of the Larsen B ice shelf prior to collapse: Toward a physically‐based calving law

Calving is a primary process of mass ablation for glaciers and ice sheets, though it still eludes a general physical law. Here, we propose a calving framework based on continuum damage mechanics coupled with the equations of viscous deformation of glacier ice. We introduce a scalar damage variable that quantifies the loss of load‐bearing surface area due to fractures and that feeds back with ice viscosity to represent fracture‐induced softening. The calving law is a standard failure criterion for viscous damaging materials and represents a macroscopic brittle instability quantified by a critical or threshold damage. We constrain this threshold using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) by inverting for damage on the Larsen B ice shelf prior to its 2002 collapse. By analyzing the damage distribution in areas that subsequently calved, we conclude that calving occurs after fractures have reduced the load‐bearing capacity of the ice by 60 ± 10%.