Individual Heterogeneity in Academic Trajectories Among Minority Students With Kin-State Migration Background: A Longitudinal Mixed-Effects Analysis

This longitudinal study investigates individual differences in the academic trajectories of ethnic Hungarian students from non-EU countries in Hungarian higher education. Using administrative data from 1,041 students across 16 semesters and 4,155 semester-level observations, linear mixed-effects models with student-specific random intercepts and slopes were applied. Results show a modest but statistically significant positive trend in grade point average (GPA) over time, with an average increase of 0.036 GPA points per semester. Serbian students achieved significantly higher average GPAs than Ukrainian peers (β = .067, p = .049), while gender and settlement type had no significant effects. Academic performance varied by field of study, with students in pedagogy (β = .47, p < .001), art sciences (β = .41, p < .001), and humanities (β = .37, p < .001) performing best. Academic workload had a nuanced impact. Completed credits positively influenced GPA (β = .022, p < .001), while credits taken had a negative effect (β = −.019, p < .001). The model indicated substantial individual heterogeneity, with a random intercept variance of 0.343, slope variance of 0.002, and a strong negative intercept-slope correlation (−.80), suggesting that students with higher initial GPAs improved less steeply over time. The high conditional R 2 (.71) versus marginal R 2 (.23) highlights the predominance of individual differences. These findings underscore the need for context-sensitive, personalized support to promote academic success and integration among cross-border minority students with non-EU backgrounds, and demonstrate the value of longitudinal, multilevel approaches in understanding their diverse educational pathways.