Technological hedging and differentiated responses of Southeast Asian countries to U.S.–China technological competition: a case study on artificial intelligence (AI)

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI), represented by ChatGPT, has triggered a new wave of technological competition between nations. Major powers like China and the United States, backed by abundant resources, dominate the discourse and hold a significant advantage in the AI field. However, as the technological rivalry between these two countries intensifies, AI represents a classic ‘double-edged sword’ for many small and medium-sized countries. Therefore, the core argument of this paper is that the AI policies of small and medium-sized countries are not simply about bandwagoning or depending on major powers. At their core, these policies represent a complex form of technological hedging. External security concerns drive small and medium-sized countries to adopt hedging as a primary strategy, while internal interest preferences influence the varying intensities of this technological hedging. The findings of this paper indicate that small countries’ technological policies can be categorized into three models: strong hedging, medium hedging, and weak hedging. Different paths of technological hedging reflect the rational balance these nations make between security and economic interests in different contexts. The case of AI development in ASEAN also demonstrates the significant imbalance between member states. Singapore is classified as a technological frontrunner, while Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam are categorized as followers. Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, Brunei, and the Philippines are considered latecomers in the field of AI. In terms of specific AI policies, Singapore and Vietnam adopt a strong technological hedging strategy, seeking more cooperation and interaction with the U.S. or other countries due to caution and concerns about China’s technological security. Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines follow a medium hedging strategy, while Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Brunei adopt a weak hedging approach. The differences in hedging intensity are primarily due to varying internal legitimacy pathways and the strength of backup resources. ASEAN member states pursue different technological paths based on their own circumstances to promote AI development.