ABSTRACT Local candidates are essential for democratic representation in local elections, yet the number of individuals willing to run for office continues to decline. This study examines the reciprocal relationship between electoral performance and candidate supply, arguing that electoral victories enhance a party's ability to attract candidates through a bandwagon effect, while losses drive both voter and candidate withdrawal. These dynamics are especially pronounced for niche parties which face heightened recruitment challenges when electoral support weakens. Drawing on a novel dataset covering more than 30 years of Swedish local elections, and using OLS, logit, and heterogeneous difference‐in‐differences models, the study demonstrates that electoral gains significantly increase the number of nominated candidates and reduce the probability of fielding no candidates at all, while losses sharply increase the risk of candidate shortages. In turn, parties that fail to nominate candidates experience a significant electoral decline, lasting up to three electoral cycles. These findings underscore the self‐reinforcing nature of candidate shortages and highlight how the inability to field candidates poses risks not only for individual parties but for the quality of local democratic competition.
Zeth Isaksson (Mon,) studied this question.