Fiscal Shocks and Strategic Resilience Traps in Metro PPP Project Ecosystems: Scenario-Based Evidence from Post-Land-Finance China

Fiscal shocks in post-land-finance China are weakening the funding basis of capital-intensive metro public-private partnership (PPP) projects, but the system-level mechanism through which public fiscal stress becomes subcontractor-level financial viability pressure remains underexplained. This study examines a section-level metro PPP project ecosystem in a sub-provincial Chinese city to trace this transmission mechanism and its financial implications. The analysis combines de-identified audit evidence and interviews with a scenario-based structural NPV model and 800,000 model-generated Monte Carlo realizations under calibrated institutional scenarios. The evidence indicates that quasi-bureaucratic SPV internal capital-market arrangements convert fiscal shortfalls into vertical and horizontal cross-subsidization practices, preserving short-term project continuity while shifting cash-flow pressure downstream. This condition is defined as a strategic resilience trap: practices that preserve short-term project continuity while potentially eroding the project ecosystem’s long-term adaptive capacity. Under calibrated assumptions, improving the contract-payment channel reduces model-generated losses by approximately 4%, suggesting that payment punctuality addresses only one part of the wider internal capital-market mechanism.