Exploring critical risk factors of metro transportation Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects in China

Effective risk management is essential for the successful delivery of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects. While China has become a global leader in PPP implementation, sector-specific research on China’s metro transportation PPP projects (CMTPPs) remains insufficient, especially regarding the nuances of the Chinese institutional context. This study aims to investigate critical risk factors for CMTPPs and provide a holistic analysis of risk sources, impacts, and mitigation. Following a systematic literature review and validation from senior experts, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was utilized to prioritize 11 primary and 45 secondary risk indicators. The findings reveal that “Interest rate changes” and “Financing feasibility” are the most critical secondary risks, reflecting the high sensitivity of this sector to the evolving financial regulations in China. Additionally, “Political Risks,” “Financing Phase Risks,” and ‘Economic Risks’ were identified as the top three primary risk categories. This study further integrates expert interpretations to explain these results within the framework of China’s administrative culture, structural disparity between state-owned and private-owned enterprises, and regulatory shifts. By visualizing the interrelationships of key risks through influence diagrams, this research offers practical insights for improving the sustainability and governance of metro PPP projects in transition economies.