Trade Facilitation and Labor Demand: The Employment Effects of AEO Certification in China

This paper exploits China's Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) certification as a quasi‐natural experiment to estimate its effects on firms' employment quantity and job quality. We find that AEO certification significantly increases firm employment and raises per‐worker social insurance contributions. Mechanism evidence indicates that these gains operate primarily through export and production scale expansion and through improved operating performance and liquidity. In contrast, we find no evidence that certification induces upgrading in firms' production structure. Using online vacancy data, we further show that AEO certification does not materially shift firms' overall occupational structure; the additional labor demand is concentrated in routine‐manual jobs. Overall, these findings suggest that the employment effects of AEO certification appear to reflect horizontal expansion along existing activities rather than technology‐driven structural transformation. Our findings offer policy‐relevant evidence for promoting trade growth alongside high‐quality employment.