Okun’s Law in the Turkish Economy: Meta-analysis of Empirical Findings

This study examines the relationship between economic growth and unemployment in Türkiye through the lens of Okun’s Law, employing a systematic meta-analytic approach. A total of 17 empirical studies published between 2009 and 2024 were synthesised. Using a random-effects model estimated via restricted maximum likelihood, the pooled effect size was β = −0.24 (SE = 0.12; 95% CI [−0.52, −0.04]; p = .024), indicating a statistically significant negative relationship between output growth and unemployment. This finding suggests that a 1% increase in economic growth is associated with an average reduction of approximately 0.24 percentage points in the unemployment rate, confirming the overall validity of Okun’s Law in the Turkish context.However, the analysis revealed exceptionally high between-study heterogeneity (I² = 99.5%; Q(16) = 959.03, p < .001), indicating that the magnitude of the Okun coefficient is strongly regime-dependent rather than structurally stable. Year-based subgroup analyses demonstrated that the growth-unemployment relationship was statistically significant in studies published in 2014 (β = −3.09, p = .031) and 2016 (β = −0.32, p = .022), whereas it became statistically insignificant in those associated with the 2018 currency crisis and the 2021 post-pandemic period. Model-based subgroup analyses further showed that nonlinear and asymmetric models (e.g., Markov-Switching, NARDL) produced substantially larger coefficients than linear specifications. Funnel plot asymmetry and Egger’s regression test indicated potential publication bias, warranting cautious interpretation of pooled estimates. Overall, the findings highlight that the effectiveness of growth in reducing unemployment in Türkiye is shaped by labour market structure, the nature of growth, and prevailing macroeconomic conditions.