Policy-driven digital transformation under AI uncertainty: A quasi–real-options framework for SMEs and regional IT vendors

This article analyzes policy-induced ecosystem dynamics under a quasi–real-options structure in an artificial intelligence–driven economy, focusing on small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) and regional information technology vendor investment behavior under technological uncertainty. Using a multiagent simulation model on the Mesa platform, the study examines how digitalization and vendor reskilling function as sequential investments analogous to embedded expansion options for future digital transformation. The results suggest that policy intervention can shift decentralized ecosystems from low-investment toward higher-investment equilibria by promoting complementary investments and coordinated expectations. However, greater recognition of flexibility value alone does not induce widespread initial digitalization among SMEs, and subsidies do not improve short-run financial welfare under the current specification. The findings highlight the role of public policy as a coordination mechanism supporting regional digital transformation under uncertainty.