Examining the Territorial Dimension as a Source of Affective Polarization in the Spanish Multinational Democracy: A Longitudinal Analysis

Research has found that citizens’ perceptions of elites’ left-right polarization are one of the causes behind affective polarization (AP). However, in many countries, political conflict and competition extend beyond the left-right axis. Using a 12-wave panel dataset, this paper examines the relationship between perceived polarization along the two main axes of political competition in Spain (the left-right axis and the territorial one) and AP. The findings reveal that perceived territorial polarization can independently contribute to AP, and provide preliminary evidence on how the salience of the territorial conflict affects this relationship. Furthermore, the impact on AP of the perceived elite conflict on each of the axes differs depending on individuals’ self-reported ideology: individuals’ perceptions of elite disagreements on the territorial dimension are strongly related to AP mainly among right-wing individuals, while perceptions of elite disagreements on the left-right dimension are somewhat more strongly related to AP among left-wing individuals. These relationships, however, are not perfectly linear, and this article also shows interesting differences between the different ideological groups. These results deepen our understanding of the causes of AP in multinational democracies and might inform future de-polarization interventions.