Tipping point: exploring the linear and non-linear effects of time to adjudication on guilty pleas and case dismissals

Organizational efficiency theory and courtroom workgroup perspectives suggest that key decisions, such as charging, plea bargaining, and case dismissals, are shaped not only by legal factors but also by pressure to manage caseloads efficiently, as well as by the defendant’s pretrial detention status and race or ethnicity. Using State Court Processing Statistics data from 1992 through 2009 (N = 69,288), this study examines the linear and non-linear effects of days to adjudication on guilty pleas and case dismissals. Results show that time to adjudication increases the odds of guilty pleas and decreases the odds of dismissals. However, non-linearity of time exists in all outcomes – when a tipping point is reached, the effects of time to adjudication change directions. Results also highlight the importance of pretrial detention status and race/ethnicity. Together, this study signals the importance of efficiency and the complexity of case processing.