Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System

BACKGROUND: spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST). OBJECTIVES: infections under climate change scenarios. METHODS: infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. RESULTS: infections at a threshold of 16°C revealed a relative risk (RR)=1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades. CONCLUSIONS: infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2198.