Sustainable Cold Region Urban Expansion Assessment Through Impervious Surface Classification and GDP Spatial Simulation

In the context of accelerating global urbanization and sustainable development challenges, impervious surfaces, as a key component of urban land cover, are significantly associated with regional economic development. This study takes Harbin, a typical cold region city, as a research object and constructs a three-level analytical framework of “land surface classification-economic simulation-mechanism analysis.” By innovatively integrating multi-source remote sensing, demographic, and economic data, the research addresses gaps in understanding urban sustainability in cold environments. An enhanced XGBoost algorithm was employed to achieve high-precision classification of ten land surface materials, resulting in a high overall accuracy. Furthermore, a gridded GDP spatialization model developed using high-resolution population data demonstrated superior performance compared to traditional methods. Machine learning-assisted analysis revealed that asphalt and metal surfaces are the most significant impervious materials driving economic output, reflecting the respective influences of transportation infrastructure and industrial agglomeration. Spatial pattern analysis indicates that Harbin’s impervious surfaces exhibit a lower fractal dimension and a distinct grid-like morphology compared to the typical subtropical city of Guangzhou, underscoring urban form adaptations to cold climatic constraints. The strong spatial coupling between gradients of GDP intensity and the attenuation of impervious surface density is quantitatively confirmed. This study provides a quantitative basis and a transferable technical framework for optimizing land use intensity and infrastructure planning in cold cities, thereby offering a scientific foundation for sustainable, intensive land utilization in climate-vulnerable urban systems.