Gender ideology, institutional mismatch, and fertility: a cross-national panel analysis

Although fertility decline is global, outcomes differ widely across countries despite similar economic development. This study examines how fertility is shaped by interactions between formal and informal institutions related to gender equality. From an institutional economics perspective, we treat gender ideology as an informal institution and gender equality in legal frameworks as a formal institution, focusing on the effects of their misalignment. Using cross-national panel data and fixed-effects models, we analyze links among fertility, gender ideology, and institutional mismatch. Results show that gender-egalitarian ideologies are positively associated with fertility, while mismatches correlate with lower fertility when gender-equal laws advance faster than gender norms. Thus, fertility decline reflects not only limited gender equality but also incoherence between institutional domains. By highlighting the interactions between formal and informal institutions and their coevolution, this study reframes low fertility as an outcome of institutional misalignment and stresses the importance of institutional coherence in demographic changes.