A novel framework linking near‐surface divergence to convective vertical transport for satellite‐based characterization of hurricane evolution

This research is motivated by the desire to understand how near‐surface divergence/convergence relate to updraft intensity in moist convection. To study this, we introduce a novel statistical methodology to quantify the relationship between column‐maximum vertical velocity and the vertical profiles of horizontal wind divergence/convergence in the atmospheric column. This methodology offers a way to characterize the vertical structure of convection and assess its relevance to tropical cyclone (TC) intensification. Utilizing an ensemble of cloud‐permitting simulations for two hurricanes— Rita (2005) and Isabel (2003)—with different microphysical parametrizations, we apply canonical correlation analysis to examine how divergence/convergence patterns at various atmospheric levels relate to convective updrafts. Total column condensate is then used as an additional classification criterion applied to the canonically derived patterns, yielding four distinct precipitating regimes, each defined by vertical profiles of horizontal wind divergence, vertical velocity, and condensate water content. Within the set of simulations examined, this classification remains consistent across microphysical parametrizations and storm structures, indicating similar vertical structure across the cases considered. Importantly, our analysis of the identified mature/deep convection areas is consistent with prior observational and modeling studies, suggesting that TC intensification phases correspond to increased mature convection near the storm core, whereas weakening trends are associated with outward migration of convective activity. Furthermore, our results indicate that using only near‐surface divergence/convergence and column‐integrated condensate can approximate the four precipitation types. An extension of the framework is explored using model‐derived, satellite‐like observables to illustrate how the diagnosed convective/stratiform regimes relate to precipitation structures commonly observed from space, highlighting the potential applicability for future observational studies. The novel aspect of this study lies in a joint, multivariate framework that characterizes the relationship between near‐surface divergence/convergence and convective updraft intensity, providing a basis for exploring space‐based monitoring of TC convective structures and their relationship to TC intensification.