Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Land Use Change in the Floodplain of the Lower Yellow River

The lower Yellow River (LYR) floodplain serves dual purposes: facilitating flood diversion and retention and supporting human settlement and production. An in-depth understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution of land use in this region is essential for ensuring flood control safety and fostering sustainable development. This study investigates the Jiahetan–Gaocun section of the LYR floodplain, analyzing land use changes that occurred between 1980 and 2020 through the application of composite land use indices, diversity indices, transition matrices, and logistic regression models. The results indicate that cropland, water area, and settlements dominate land use types, with cropland and settlement areas increasing by 34.62% and 36.12%, respectively, and water areas diminishing by 53.50%. Following the 2015 implementation of a national relocation policy for floodplain residents, settlement areas had surged by 29.45% by 2020. The analysis further demonstrates that proximity to dykes significantly influences water distribution, whereas river management initiatives and beach management policies enacted before 2010 constrained settlement expansion. With the advent of new policies, settlements have proliferated, and cropland has expanded at the expense of water areas. These findings elucidate the intricate interplay between socioeconomic factors, environmental dynamics, and governmental policies in shaping land use patterns in the LYR floodplain, providing valuable insights for future land use planning, flood management, and ecological conservation efforts in similar nonadministrative floodplain regions.