Mechanisms and impacts of future plant invasions: research agendas and management needs under disruptive social‐ecological change scenarios

No‐analogue futures are characteristic of the Anthropocene, but how global change, and societies' responses, will affect plant invasions remains unclear. Conducting research now to address future needs is crucial for guiding invasion management and policy. We used four previously developed non‐exclusive scenarios to forecast trajectories of plant invasions into natural areas by 2050 and identify research gaps and future management needs. Scenarios explored positive and perverse consequences of aspirational biodiversity policies (Indigenous land tenure, native reforestation, non‐native mammal removal) and increasing extreme weather through climate change. The scenarios are set in Aotearoa New Zealand, which is on the forefront of emerging conservation issues and faces significant impacts from invasive plants. Under each scenario we considered socio‐economic and ecological drivers such as changes in land use and biotic interactions, focussing on public and private conservation areas. For a scenario considering increased land ownership or stewardship by Indigenous people, sociological research around bicultural communication was key to meet expected management needs. Under increased native reforestation, research into the impacts of landscape connectivity and long‐term resilience of restoration plantings was highlighted. With non‐native mammalian predator eradication, identifying the impact of species' removal from ecological networks and plant traits that promote success will be essential to identify emerging invaders. Increases in extreme weather events will disrupt management and spread ruderal invaders, requiring the development of better decision‐making and prioritization tools. Several priorities emerged across all scenarios, including the need for research and data advances, better management tools, and improved communication and consensus‐building. Investment in these areas provides long‐term benefits across a range of possible futures. Our approach, using invasion drivers, filters and traits to forecast the impact of future scenarios covering multiple global drivers of environmental change, can be widely applied to identify gaps, drive research agendas and proactively anticipate management and policy needs.