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The terrestrial water cycle plays a central role in the climate, ecology, and biogeochemistry of the planet. Mounting historical evidence for the influence of greenhouse warming on recent climate, and modeling projections into the future, highlight changes to the land-based water cycle as a major global change issue (Houghton et al. 1995, Watson et al. 1996, SGCR 1999). Disturbance of the hydrologic cycle has received significant attention with respect to land–atmosphere exchanges, plant physiology, net primary production, and the cycling of major nutrients (Foley et al. 1996, Sellers et al. 1996, McGuire et al. 1997). Changes in land use are also recognized as critical factors governing the future availability of fresh water (Chase et al. 2000). Another important but seldom articulated global change issue is direct alteration of the continental water cycle for irrigation, hydroelectricity, and other human needs. Although the scope and magnitude of water engineering today are colossal in comparison with preindustrial times, most of the very same activities—irrigation, navigation enhancement, reservoir creation—can be traced back several thousand years in the Middle East and China. Stabilization of water supply has remained a fundamental preoccupation of human society and is a key security concern for most nations. Reducing flood hazard, enhancing food security, and redirecting runoff from water-rich to water-poor areas continue to provide a major challenge to our engineering infrastructure.
Vörösmarty et al. (Sat,) studied this question.