Turkey’s assertive turn in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: from cautious support to strategic engagement with Azerbaijan

Unlike the early 1990s, when Ankara refrained from direct military involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh war, in 2020 Turkey played a pivotal role in securing Azerbaijan’s military victory. Thus, the earlier cautious posturing gave way to strategic assertiveness. This study examines the domestic-level factors that enabled Turkey’s assertive engagement in the conflict with an unprecedented degree of power projection. By looking into the evolution of key domestic institutional dynamics and their implications for Turkey’s strategic turn, the paper comparatively analyzes the reasons behind Ankara’s positioning during the Nagorno-Karabakh wars in the 1990s and 2020. The article argues that Turkey’s autocratic turn, the neutralization of domestic checks and balances, the monopolization of decision-making, the expansion of military power and capabilities, and revisionist foreign policy posturing collectively conditioned Ankara’s involvement in the war.