ABSTRACT: Context Our Capsule Characterization of Forecasting is: Forecasting Models provide the critical intel needed by the Planning Committee PC to service their charge of providing tactical and strategic guidance to the organization. The critical element of this capsule characterization is: The Forecasting Acuity of the Extrapolations of the Forecasting Model FM. Herein lies a conundrum, as the SES-FM only produces Interpolations. There has never been a case where the PC was interested in Interpolations produced by any FM! Repurposing the SES-FM. We find that the: Simple Exponential aSmoothing] FM: where: a is the Smoothing Constant, noted as: SEaS used as a Y-Variate Smoothing Transform is an excellent tool in the panoply of the forecaster. Focus We examined the following three SEaS Models: (i) The Excel-, (ii) The PENN State- & (iii) The SASJMP-Versions. Results Using firm sample from the S&P500, we illustrate how to use these SEaS Models to present to the Planning Committee the decision-context where managerial actions could effect the changes in the AIS-configuration to move certain Y-Variates to mirror the smoothed versions and thus, over time to improve forecasting acuity of the firm that, in turn, would likely improve the market position of the firm.
Belhadjali et al. (Wed,) studied this question.