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Importance: Although prostate-specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography (PSMA-PET) has shown improved sensitivity and specificity compared with conventional imaging for the detection of biochemical recurrent (BCR) prostate cancer, the long-term outcomes of a widespread shift in imaging are unknown. Objective: To estimate long-term outcomes of integrating PSMA-PET into the staging pathway for recurrent prostate cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytic modeling study simulated outcomes for patients with BCR following initial definitive local therapy. Inputs used were from the literature and a retrospective cohort study conducted at 2 institutions. The base case analysis assumed modest benefits of earlier detection and treatment, and scenario analyses considered prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at imaging and different outcomes of earlier vs delayed treatment. The analysis was performed between April 1, 2023, and May 1, 2024. Exposures: (1) Immediate PSMA-PET imaging, (2) conventional imaging (computed tomography and bone scan CTBS) followed by PSMA-PET if CTBS findings were negative or equivocal, and (3) CTBS alone. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were detection of metastases, deaths from prostate cancer, and life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. Results: The model estimated that per 1000 simulated patients with BCR (assumed median age, 66 years), PSMA-PET is expected to diagnose 611 (95% uncertainty interval UI, 565-656) patients with metastasis compared with 630 (95% UI, 586-675) patients diagnosed using CTBS followed by PSMA-PET and 297 (95% UI, 202-410) patients diagnosed using CTBS alone. Moreover, the estimated number of prostate cancer deaths was 512 (95% UI, 472-552 deaths) with PSMA-PET, 520 (95% UI, 480-559 deaths) with CTBS followed by PSMA-PET, and 587 (95% UI, 538-632 deaths) with CTBS alone. Imaging with PSMA-PET yielded the highest number of QALYs, which were 824 (95% UI, 698-885) higher than CTBS. These results differed by PSA level at the time of testing, with the highest incremental life-years and QALYs and lowest number of deaths from prostate cancer among patients with PSA levels of at least 5.0 ng/mL. Finally, the estimates were sensitive to the expected benefit of initiating therapy for recurrent prostate cancer earlier in the disease course. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this decision-analytic model suggest that upfront PSMA-PET imaging for the evaluation of BCR is expected to be associated with reduced cancer mortality and gains in life-years and QALYs compared with the conventional imaging strategy, assuming modest benefits of earlier detection and treatment.
Kunst et al. (Wed,) studied this question.