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In response to climate change, China has implemented a carbon trading market to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from thermal power generation. However, the resulting carbon costs are reshaping the behavior of market participants. This study aims to investigate how key players in the thermal power market, i.e., thermal power companies, power selling companies, and energy consumers—adjust their strategies under the influence of carbon trading policies. By integrating evolutionary game theory and system dynamics modeling, we construct a three-agent evolutionary game to analyze strategy stability and key influencing factors. The model is then translated into a system dynamics framework for scenario simulation and sensitivity analysis. Results indicate that under most carbon market conditions, thermal power companies tend to adopt emission reduction strategies, while power selling companies and energy consumers are more inclined toward green power options. This study contributes a novel approach by combining game-theoretic analysis with dynamic simulation, providing strategic insights for optimizing participant behavior and improving the effectiveness of carbon trading mechanisms.
Feng et al. (Sat,) studied this question.