Smoking, Expectations, and Health: A Dynamic Stochastic Model of Lifetime Smoking Behavior

I estimate a dynamic, stochastic model of smoking, expectations, and health that makes explicit channels through which an individual may learn about the health risks of smoking. Simulations of the structural model suggest that cardiovascular biomarker information at repeated health exams does not significantly alter smoking behavior because (a) signals of biomarker health are noisy within individuals, (b) the influence of biomarkers on major health outcomes is small, and (c) cigarette smoking is addictive. This paper also presents evidence of selection in smoking that, when not modeled, may cause an overstatement of the effect of smoking on expected longevity.