Attacks on humans and damage to peach orchards determine perceived human-brown bear conflicts in a high-density bear hotspot of the Caucasus

Habitat encroachment limits suitable spaces and drives wild animals out to human-dominated landscapes. Encounters with humans, damage to human properties, nuisance behavior, and occasional attacks on humans create human-wildlife conflicts and impinge on coexistence, especially with wide-ranging large species. Brown bear ( Ursus arctos ) is among the most problematic species throughout its global range, urging to investigate conflict patterns and apply targeted, context-dependent interventions aimed to reduce human-bear conflict. In April-June 2024, we conducted a randomized controlled questionnaire survey of 178 households in 18 villages of Vayots Dzor Province of southern Armenia to find out the key determinants of perceived economic and non-economic conflicts. Armenia is part of the Caucasus Biodiversity Hotspot and Vayots Dzor holds one of the highest bear densities in the world. We used Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) with binary response variable (conflict/no conflict) to test two hypotheses related to description and prediction of perceived non-economic and perceived economic conflicts. We have shown that bear attacks on humans and annual peach yield were the best predictors of perceived non-economic and economic conflicts, respectively. These effects were strong, significant and positive, but much more precise and accurate for bear attacks on humans than for annual peach yield. Attacks occurred mostly during daytime in spring, and damage to peach trees was inflicted predominantly at night during summer, with trees mainly damaged beyond recovery and in quantities much less than they were available. We suggest to organize hands-on training during the peak spring season on seven effective self-protection measures to reduce the numbers of bear attacks, recommend to use electric fences and hire watchmen more widely for orchard protection, and compare them with currently used local conflict mitigation practices. Our findings provide solid evidence for conflict patterns and application of effective and practical interventions to reduce conflict.