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This study assesses changes in the timing, length, and distribution of the dry season in the Amazon due to future climate scenarios.

July 1, 2026Global Change BiologyOpen Access

Amazon Dry Season Will Lengthen Under Future Climate

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This study assesses changes in the timing, length, and distribution of the dry season in the Amazon due to future climate scenarios.
Utilized a multi-model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to analyze projections from 2000 to 2100.
Estimated monthly water balance considering precipitation and evapotranspiration.
Calculated dry season onset, end, and length based on accumulated water deficits.
Lengthening of the dry season projected in 35% of the Amazon basin under low-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6).
Under high-emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5), dry season lengthening reaches up to 56%, with increases of up to 2 months particularly in southern and eastern Amazon by 2100.
The changes pose serious risks for forest ecosystems, water availability, and climate feedback mechanisms.

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Modeling study projects dry season changes in the Amazon, indicating significant climate impacts ahead.

Ferreira et al. (2026) studied this question.

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