Juveniles reveal natural recovery potential of Caribbean coral species after a widespread disease die-off

Stony Coral Tissue Loss Disease is the most lethal coral disease ever recorded, resulting in mortality rates >90% in some species. This phenomenon underscores the urgent need to understand the mechanisms that could promote natural recovery. Here, we test whether the populations of affected species can recover naturally by evaluating the condition of juvenile corals across 75 sites in the Mexican Caribbean. Our findings indicate that the populations of the most susceptible species underwent severe changes in overall number and exhibited a shift toward smaller colony sizes. However, for some species, we estimated that a high proportion of juveniles were recruited following the peak of the outbreak. It suggests that some susceptible species might naturally recover through sexual reproduction and successful coral recruitment. However, the diagnosis is not as encouraging for the most severely afflicted species, such as Dendrogyra cylindrus and Meandrina meandrites. Understanding the dynamics of coral recruitment is crucial, as many coral reefs worldwide have experienced large declines in coral cover and abundance. We have demonstrated that monitoring juveniles over broad spatial scales and extensive sampling areas yields invaluable insights into the potential structural changes of future communities and their capacity for natural recovery and supporting community resilience. Coral species can recover naturally from stony coral tissue loss disease through sexual reproduction and coral recruitment, according to assessment of juvenile corals from the Mexican Caribbean.