Contribution of Early Life Stages to Interannual Variability in Recruitment of Northern Anchovy (Engraulis mordax)

We tested Hjort's and Lasker's hypotheses that the abundance of recruits in fishes is determined at an early life stage. Using 13 yr of data on components of population dynamics of the well-studied northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), we reconstructed the abundance of anchovy in each year at three stages: eggs, 4.5-d-old yolk-sac larvae, and 19-d-old larvae. No abundance measure was significantly correlated with age 1 recruits, resulting in rejection of Hjort's and Lasker's hypotheses. We give reasons why the low correlations are not an artifact of estimation error. The lack of correlation exists because of the large variability (CV = 171%) in survival rate between age 19 d and age 1 yr. Therefore, attempts to understand interannual variability in recruitment in this, and perhaps other, marine fish species may have to rely not only on data on eggs and larvae, but especially on data on abundances estimated after 20 d, closer to the age at recruitment.