Long-term SO2 emissions reveal magmatic-hydrothermal dynamics and eruption precursors in an active volcano, implying enhanced hazard assessments.
Long‐term SO 2 emission rate time series are critical for deciphering the subsurface processes regulating open‐vent volcanoes, yet extracting cyclical drivers from continuous degassing records remains challenging. We analyze a 14‐year (2006–2020) SO 2 emission rate data set from Whakaari/White Island, New Zealand, identifying five chronological degassing phases. Results reveal a magmatic‐hydrothermal duality: high‐rate emissions persist through open pathways while the surrounding matrix actively seals, trapping fluids and driving localized overpressure. Notably, the 2019 pre‐eruption period shows a systematic, multi‐month baseline increase exceeding the 95th percentile threshold (800 t/day) months prior to the event. Wavelet analysis identifies variable short‐term periodicity during unrest alongside robust cycles at ∼565 and ∼1,275 days. The ∼565‐day cycle broadly mirrors regional slow slip recurrence, suggesting potential tectonic forcing, whereas the ∼1,275‐day cycle reflects coupled deep reservoir supply and shallow conduit overpressure timescales. This framework enhances hazard assessments at open‐vent magmatic‐hydrothermal systems.
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Mazot et al. (2026) studied this question.
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